Why records conflict
Why official records disagree
Short answer
- Revision vs error
- Separate processes in ONS policy 1
- Coverage
- US household survey counts self-employed workers, the payroll survey does not 3
- Geography
- US provisional deaths tabulated by place of occurrence 4
- Restatement
- US non-reliance notices filed under Form 8-K Item 4.02 5
- Rebasing
- South Africa rebased real GDP to 2015 prices in August 2021 8
The record was published at a different stage
Many official figures start as estimates. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) says its advance GDP estimate is based on source data that are incomplete or still being revised 2. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) says its latest 2 months of payroll estimates rest on incomplete returns 3.
One record was revised or corrected
Statistics offices revise figures to add better data or methods. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) says revisions are not published to correct a mistake 1. When a mistake is found, ONS issues a correction and shows it in a banner titled Correction 1.
Base-year changes reopen long runs of data. Statistics South Africa published benchmarked nominal GDP and real GDP rebased to 2015 prices on 25 August 2021, covering the first quarter of 1993 to the fourth quarter of 2020 8.
The records measure different things
Two correct records can count different populations. BLS says the household survey includes agricultural workers, self-employed workers and unpaid family workers, and these groups are excluded from the establishment survey 3. The household survey counts a person once, and the establishment survey counts each job 3.
Rules for where an event is recorded matter too. The National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) said provisional death counts were tabulated by the jurisdiction where the death occurred, not the decedent's state of residence 4. It said some state and local health departments reported only laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 deaths 4.
Accounts were restated
Company records change when an error is found. Under IAS 8, material prior period errors are corrected by restating comparative amounts 6. In the United States, a registrant that concludes past statements should no longer be relied upon discloses this under Form 8-K Item 4.02 5.
The published text itself was corrected
Errors can sit in the official publication. The Office of the Federal Register says the party that made an error is responsible for correcting it, and agencies must publish a document to correct substantive errors 7.
Quick check of the causes
| Cause | What to look for |
|---|---|
| Early estimate 2 | A label such as advance, preliminary or provisional 2,3 |
| Correction of error 1 | A correction notice or banner on the release 1 |
| Different coverage 3 | Who is included and the counting unit 3 |
| Different geography 4 | Place of occurrence or place of residence 4 |
| Restatement 5 | A Form 8-K Item 4.02 filing or restated comparatives 5,6 |
| Rebasing 8 | A new base year in the release notes 8 |
Common questions
Can two different official figures both be right?
Yes. The US household and payroll surveys cover different groups and count people versus jobs, so their totals differ 3.
Is a revised figure a corrected error?
Not in ONS terms. Revisions add better data or methods, and corrections fix mistakes 1.
Rules and charges change. Check the official source linked on this page before you pay or travel. Spotted an error? Email hello@recordsdisagree.com.
Sources
- Office for National Statistics: The Office for National Statistics' Revisions Policy and Correction of Errors Policy (9 August 2024)
- Bureau of Economic Analysis: Comparisons of Revisions to Real GDP (October 2026)
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment Situation Technical Note (2 October 2026)
- CDC National Center for Health Statistics: Technical Notes, Provisional Death Counts for COVID-19 (20 September 2023)
- U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission: Form 8-K Current Report (OMB Number 3235-0060)
- IFRS Foundation: IAS 8 Basis of Preparation of Financial Statements
- National Archives, Office of the Federal Register: Correcting the Federal Register and CFR (17 October 2024)
- South African Reserve Bank: Notice on the Revision of South Africa's national accounts and balance of payments statistics (26 August 2021)
Related
- Scope and period mismatches between official records
How differences in coverage, counting units, reference periods, fiscal years and geography make two correct official records show different numbers.
- Statistical revisions explained
Why GDP, jobs and other official figures change after release, how agencies schedule revisions, and how a revision differs from a correction of an error.
- Provisional versus final data
What provisional, advance and final figures mean in official data, how long each stage lasts, and why early counts differ from final ones.
- Financial restatements explained
How companies correct errors in published accounts under US rules and IFRS, what a Form 8-K Item 4.02 notice means, and how EU enforcers act.
- How to compare two conflicting records
A step by step method for comparing two official figures that disagree, from vintage and scope to corrections, restatements and documentation.
- Corrigenda and corrections in official journals
How the EU Official Journal, the US Federal Register and statistics offices publish corrections to released texts, and how to find them.